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Redcliffe swing equates to an extra 54 seats for Labor in 2015

Yvette Dath - new Member for Redcliffe
Yvette D'Ath scored an impressive 16.3% swing to the ALP in the Redcliffe by-election, on figures released at the close of counting on Saturday night.

She easily took the seat off the LNP following the forced resignation of the former member Scott Driscoll last year.

If that swing is repeated uniformly across Queensland in the 2015 state election, the Labor Party would gain an extra 54 seats as well as the 8 seats it now holds.

Ministers and one-term backbenchers would all be given the collective Royal Order of the Boot.

Labor would win office with 62 of the 89 seats in the Queensland Parliament.

Swings are rarely uniform and political fortunes can change dramatically but those figures are reminiscent of the days when Peter Beattie ruled Queensland with a massive majority.

What seems to be certain is that Campbell Newman will be facing impossible odds to hold his seat of Ashgrove which he won with 55.7% of the vote when Labor fortunes were at their lowest ebb since 1974.

If Campbell Newman panics and switches to the safe LNP seat of Moggill, the sitting member Bruce Flegg - who is no fan of Campbell - would almost certainly stand as an independent and win on ALP preferences.

Either way, Campbell Newman would join an array of single term conservative premiers which Queensland has had since 1859.

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