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Election 2010 Cliffhanger

With the 2010 election a complete cliffhanger, it may not be the seat of Hasluck in Western Australia which determines the winner but the seat of Brisbane in Queensland held by the ALP's Arch Bevis since 1990.

The ALP has been steadily pulling back the LNP Teresa Gambaro's lead since Saturday night.

The 2-party preferred vote is currently:

BEVIS, Arch ALP 32,851 (49.71%)
GAMBARO, Teresa LNP 33,233 (50.29%).

Arch Bevis has been a pugnacious little fighter for 20 years and he may yet survive this battle as well.

If he pulls it off and Labor wins Corangamite in Victoria and the Liberals win Hasluck in Western Australia, the final result of the 150 seats would be:

Coalition 71
ALP 73

Greens 1

Independent NSW 2
Independent QLD 1
Independent TAS 1

"Rogue" National WA 1


The National Party candidate from Western Australia Tony Crook who defeated the Liberals' star embarrassment Wilson Tuckey in the seat of O'Connor has said he will sit on the cross benches and support neither major party.

That's why his seat needs to be taken out of the equation in calculating the number of seats won by the Coalition with 71 seats, or 72 at the most, even if the WA "rogue" National seat is included.

Julia Gillard then has the first right to attempt to form a government.

The final minority ALP government might look like this:

ALP 73
Greens 1
Ind. TAS 1
Ind. NSW 2

TOTAL 77

or

ALP 73
Greens 1
Ind TAS 1
Ind. NSW 2
Ind. QLD 1

TOTAL 78

Even if the LNP wins Brisbane, a minority ALP Government might look like:

ALP 72
Greens 1
Ind. TAS 1
Ind. NSW 2

TOTAL 76


Alternatively, a minority Coalition Government might look like:

Coalition 72
Independents 4

TOTAL 76

Under all these scenarios, stability in government would seem more likely with an ALP minority government.

The minority LNP Government scenario would have to rely on a former Green candidate from Tasmania, now an Independent or a "rogue" National from Western Australia who detests the National Party in the eastern states.

Don't give up yet Julia.