How the Queensland election results will affect NSW election.
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| Mike Baird and Tony Abbott - Positions looking shaky. |
Sydney needs more rail lines and public transport, but to get that requires selling off some of our assets. But, following Queensland results, how will the upcoming NSW election be played out for Mike Baird?
Liberal Prime Minister Tony Abbott's missteps have begun eroding the party's standing in NSW, eight weeks before Premier Mike Baird faces the electorate and after a dramatic rout in Queensland.
A well-placed source has told Fairfax the party's primary vote in NSW lost two percentage points in the week after Mr Abbott's decision to grant a knighthood to Prince Philip, according to internal polling.
The re-election chances of the government of NSW Premier Mike Baird, left, are being eroded by the unpopularity of Prime Minister Tony Abbott.
The revelation comes as local Liberal party figures question the extent to which the electoral contagion which routed the Queensland Liberals will spread to NSW.
"This [Queensland] is the third state the federal government has influenced negatively," the source said in a pointed reference to Labor victories in South Australia, Victoria and Queensland.
"People are joking about speeding up the Lodge renovations," the source said.
The Liberal party's state director, Tony Nutt, declined to comment on Sunday.
Party figures are understood to be considering asking Mr Abbott to avoid campaigning at all in his home state ahead of the March 28 poll.
"You won't be seeing much of Tony Abbott in the NSW campaign, you can be sure of that," said the ABC's election analyst, Antony Green. "That's if he's still Prime Minister".
The state's new Labor leader, Luke Foley, said he had a new "spring in his step" following the results of the Queensland election.
He unveiled a new line of attack seeking to connect Mr Baird with his federal and Queensland counterparts and suggesting a state campaign that will focus on health, education and privatisation.
"Tony Abbott, Campbell Newman and Mike Baird are peas in a pod," he told reporters while unveiling new health policy. "Campbell Newman's agenda is Mike Baird's agenda: selling off the state's electricity assets combined with cuts to health and education.
"It may be that Mike Baird […] has a nicer smile, but their agenda is the same."
On a two-party preferred basis the swing against the Newman government appeared to be about 13.5 per cent. A uniform swing of this level across NSW this would leave the ALP one seat shy of the 24 it needs to claim power in its own right.
Mr Green noted that there was a long-observed tendency for the poor standing of a party in power in Canberra to "infect" the perception of its state-level counterpart. But he said the issue of privatisation could play out very differently in NSW.
Until latterly in its term, the Newman government had been trying to sell voters on a plan to use privatisation proceeds of $28 billion to pay down the state's debt.
But Mr Baird has promised to spend a projected $20 billion windfall from selling off half the state's "poles and wires" on new infrastructure.
"It's a bit different if you're offering voters something in exchange for the sale of assets, like a new [cross-harbour] tunnel," he said.
Mr Green nonetheless predicted a major swing against the NSW Coalition, of up to 10 per cent, in part as a correction to the 16.5 per cent swing it enjoyed at the last election.
"NSW will have a big swing," he said. "NSW had a more spectacular two party preferred result [than even Queensland last election].
"[But] the level of public anger toward the [Baird] government is nowhere near [levels in Queensland]."
As a then-ascendant Opposition Leader, Mr Abbott launched the 2011 campaign of NSW Liberal leader Barry O'Farrell.
The revelation comes as local Liberal party figures question the extent to which the electoral contagion which routed the Queensland Liberals will spread to NSW.
"This [Queensland] is the third state the federal government has influenced negatively," the source said in a pointed reference to Labor victories in South Australia, Victoria and Queensland.
"People are joking about speeding up the Lodge renovations," the source said.
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| Abbott is destined for the bottom of the sea. |
The Liberal party's state director, Tony Nutt, declined to comment on Sunday.
Party figures are understood to be considering asking Mr Abbott to avoid campaigning at all in his home state ahead of the March 28 poll.
"You won't be seeing much of Tony Abbott in the NSW campaign, you can be sure of that," said the ABC's election analyst, Antony Green. "That's if he's still Prime Minister".
The state's new Labor leader, Luke Foley, said he had a new "spring in his step" following the results of the Queensland election.
He unveiled a new line of attack seeking to connect Mr Baird with his federal and Queensland counterparts and suggesting a state campaign that will focus on health, education and privatisation.
"Tony Abbott, Campbell Newman and Mike Baird are peas in a pod," he told reporters while unveiling new health policy. "Campbell Newman's agenda is Mike Baird's agenda: selling off the state's electricity assets combined with cuts to health and education.
"It may be that Mike Baird […] has a nicer smile, but their agenda is the same."
On a two-party preferred basis the swing against the Newman government appeared to be about 13.5 per cent. A uniform swing of this level across NSW this would leave the ALP one seat shy of the 24 it needs to claim power in its own right.
Mr Green noted that there was a long-observed tendency for the poor standing of a party in power in Canberra to "infect" the perception of its state-level counterpart. But he said the issue of privatisation could play out very differently in NSW.
Until latterly in its term, the Newman government had been trying to sell voters on a plan to use privatisation proceeds of $28 billion to pay down the state's debt.
But Mr Baird has promised to spend a projected $20 billion windfall from selling off half the state's "poles and wires" on new infrastructure.
"It's a bit different if you're offering voters something in exchange for the sale of assets, like a new [cross-harbour] tunnel," he said.
Mr Green nonetheless predicted a major swing against the NSW Coalition, of up to 10 per cent, in part as a correction to the 16.5 per cent swing it enjoyed at the last election.
"NSW will have a big swing," he said. "NSW had a more spectacular two party preferred result [than even Queensland last election].
"[But] the level of public anger toward the [Baird] government is nowhere near [levels in Queensland]."
As a then-ascendant Opposition Leader, Mr Abbott launched the 2011 campaign of NSW Liberal leader Barry O'Farrell.
