|Queensland Labor leader |
IPSWICH election analysts and number crunchers Paul Tully and Shayne Neumann are both tipping the Labor Party will form government in Queensland in a hung parliament.
They have come to their conclusion after examining the numbers and taking into account Nicklin independent Peter Wellington has made it clear he would support Labor and not the LNP.
The state of play is this: Labor has won 43 seats, the LNP 40 , KAP two and Independent Mr Wellington one.
The seats in doubt are Maryborough, Whitsunday and Mansfield.
The LNP has the lead on a two-candidate preferred basis in Whitsunday by 84 votes, and by 395 votes in Mansfield
But Labor's lead in Maryborough is considerable.
The ALP's Bruce Saunders has 53.04% of the two-candidate preferred vote and the LNP's Anne Maddern has 46.96% with postal votes still to be counted.
Mr Maddern has a lead of 1199 votes.
Even if the LNP gets up in Mansfield and Whitsunday, Maryborough appears to be a bridge too far.
"It is hard to see the LNP getting back 3% of the vote," Mr Neumann, the Labor Blair MP said. "The truth is that Labor will win Maryborough and will form government in a hung parliament.
"Labor will get the support on the ground of Wellington…and for the sake of economic certainty and stability there should be a Labor government.
"It does remind me of 1998 where Peter Beattie, like Annastacia Palaszczuk, fell one seat short of forming a majority government. The independent supported Labor last time (in 1998) and Wellington has said he would support a Labor government.
"Peter Beattie always said his best government was his minority government from 1998 to 2001 because it kept everyone on their toes and kept everyone very accountable to the electorate as well."
Cr Tully said he agreed with Mr Neumann's assessment on the likely result and that it was looking like Mr Wellington would hold the balance of power in a hung parliament with Labor in power.
Although there is one proviso.
"Labor could win the seat of Whitsunday giving them the 45 seats which is a majority," he said.
"I believe Labor will win 44 or 45 seats. At 44 they will have to rely on the two KAP candidates or Peter Wellington. At 45 they would hold the majority in their own right."
Cr Tully earlier said he expected Mr Wellington to be appointed as speaker in the event of a hung parliament.