|Paul Tully -|
tipping close vote
ELECTION analyst Paul Tully is tipping the likelihood of a hung parliament after all the votes are counted in today's state election.
Cr Tully correctly predicted Labor would win seven seats in 2012 but said today's election "has become tighter and more-difficult to predict" and there were "six key things at play" in deciding the result.
He said Premier Campbell Newman may have overplayed his hand by suing Alan Jones for defamation.
"It reeks of the days of the Joh era with stopper writs and legal threats," he said.
"The LNP 'Just Vote 1' strategy may backfire in several key seats, giving the edge to the ALP in those seats.
Cr Tully said the LNP/Liberals had become "the laughing stock of Australia with the decision of Prime Minister Abbott to give a knighthood to the Greek-born husband of the Queen of England".
"That stupidity might cost the LNP 1 to 2% percent of the vote in Queensland," he said.
"Campbell Newman made unproven allegations (on bikie gang donations) against Labor and then said it was up to the ALP to disprove the allegations - a strange understanding of the law, politics and fair play.
"Annastacia Palaszczuk and the ALP have run a very professional grass roots campaign with brilliant electioneering which will 'bring home in the bacon' in must-win seats like Brisbane Central, Mount Coot-tha, Ipswich and Ipswich West.
"The latest polling shows both major parties neck and neck."
Cr Tully said he had the ALP on a reasonably comfortable 37 seats "with a reasonable likelihood of winning another four" for a total of 41.
"The LNP would be left with 44 seats, one seat short of an absolute majority in the parliament.
"There are likely to be two Katter Party MPs and two independents.
"As a party must win 45 seats to gain an absolute majority out of 89 seats, I predict the likelihood of a hung parliament."