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Poll Update: 399 votes could determine the outcome of the election: Tully

Paul Tully - Predicts 399 votes
could determine the outcome
 of the election.

ELECTION expert Cr Paul Tully says that fewer than 400 votes could determine the outcome of what has been an historic state election.

Cr Tully, who tipped a hung parliament in his pre-election preview in the QT, said the current state of play had Labor on 43 seats, the LNP with 40, KAP on two and the independent Peter Wellington home in Nicklin.

Mansfield, Maryborough and Whitsunday remain in doubt.

"The LNP cannot win the election in its own right," Cr Tully said.

"If they win all three seats which are in doubt and the Katter's Australian Party sided with them, which Bob Katter said on Channel 7 last night that he would not do, this would give the LNP 45 seats on the floor of the House - a real hung parliament.

"The independent Peter Wellington has publicly said he will not support a minority LNP government.

"If two or three of the doubtful seats go to Labor, that would give the ALP a majority government with either 45 or 46 seats.

"If Labor wins only one of the doubtful seats, it could form government with 44 seats and presumably Peter Wellington as speaker."

The latest official two-candidate preferred margins in the three seats according to the Electoral Commission Queensland show the ALP ahead by 25 votes in Mansfield, the ALP 685 votes ahead in Maryborough and the LNP ahead by 84 votes in Whitsunday.

Cr Tully said 50 % of these margins, plus one, was enough to swing the vote the other way.

"Based on the current margins, it would require 13 votes to reverse the current trend in Mansfield, 343 votes in Maryborough and 43 votes in Maryborough, a total of 399," he said.

"So, just 399 votes could ultimately determine the outcome of the 2015 election when it goes down to the wire with all postal and absentee votes in."